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Old 12th February 2010, 20:26   #1
oya
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1 in 10

In the program Extreme Cave Diving (which is friggin AWESOME) Jill Heinerth makes the seemingly broad claim, "'1 in 10 dies on a RB" (or perhaps it was "1 in 10 rebreathers malfunction," but that seems even sillier. Because I'm reasonably sure that 10 in 10 rebreathers malfunction).

So I got to wondering, does there exist anywhere a full listing of the productions runs of all the major units AND a full listing of all fatalities, or at least the number of fatalities?

I'm not the least bit interested in a pissing match about which unit is safer or better. This just seems, to me, to be pretty good information to having kicking around.
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Old 12th February 2010, 20:32   #2
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Re: 1 in 10

Quote: (Originally Posted by oya) View Original Post
In the program Extreme Cave Diving (which is friggin AWESOME) Jill Heinerth makes the seemingly broad claim, "'1 in 10 dies on a Rebreather" (or perhaps it was "1 in 10 rebreathers malfunction," but that seems even sillier. Because I'm reasonably sure that 10 in 10 rebreathers malfunction).

So I got to wondering, does there exist anywhere a full listing of the productions runs of all the major units AND a full listing of all fatalities, or at least the number of fatalities?

I'm not the least bit interested in a pissing match about which unit is safer or better. This just seems, to me, to be pretty good information to having kicking around.
No there is not, may never be the greater good gets in the way of money
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Old 12th February 2010, 20:55   #3
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Re: 1 in 10

actually yes there is: you only need to use the RBW "search" function to find them (does take a bit of work admittedly)
Unfortunately the two sets of data are separate.
And as with all Rebreather stats it's hard to compare apples with apples. Rebreather's look much more dangerous than OC in large part because they're used for much more dangerous dives in general. e.g. 60% of RB fatalities are either solo, deeper than 40m or cave dives. So if you don't do those they're nearly 3x safer than statistics suggest.
Likewise there will be bias between different rebreather models. The Kiss tends to look safest and Mk15 and Meg least safe (~10x Kiss), but I'm sure a lot of that is to do with the kind of dives that are undertaken by them.
What we would really want to know is how safe any one dive would be on each unit. But what we don't have is a database of types of dives for each unit to "control for" the difference in usage.
Then I also believe that RB diving has been getting safer since around 2005. (Reported) fatalities have been roughly constant every year since 2006 despite rapidly rising usage. You'd also possibly have to correct model figures for year of launch to incorporate e.g. better diving practices or updated safety features.
Anyway, here are base data for you to have a look at:
Accident stats are at: http://www.deeplife.co.uk/or_files/R...ts_090804b.xls
Model numbers are at:
http://www.rebreatherworld.com/showthread.php?t=31528

Last edited by NiallOC; 12th February 2010 at 20:59.. Reason: edit: to answer your original question, in 2009 there was around 1 fatality per 500 rebreathers total production
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Old 12th February 2010, 20:59   #4
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Re: 1 in 10

Quote: (Originally Posted by oya) View Original Post
In the program Extreme Cave Diving (which is friggin AWESOME) Jill Heinerth makes the seemingly broad claim, "'1 in 10 dies on a Rebreather" (or perhaps it was "1 in 10 rebreathers malfunction," but that seems even sillier. Because I'm reasonably sure that 10 in 10 rebreathers malfunction).

So I got to wondering, does there exist anywhere a full listing of the productions runs of all the major units AND a full listing of all fatalities, or at least the number of fatalities?

I'm not the least bit interested in a pissing match about which unit is safer or better. This just seems, to me, to be pretty good information to having kicking around.
I was very surprised by that claim, especially coming from Jill. I hope she will come on here and defend or explain that statement and it isn't just more of that "extreme" hype.
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Old 12th February 2010, 21:00   #5
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Re: 1 in 10

It was an awesome show. I'm still not sure what she ment, the quote is at about 39 minutes for those that haven't seen it Extreme Cave Diving | NOVA | PBS Video. I'm sure it's taken a little out of context.
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Old 12th February 2010, 21:06   #6
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Re: 1 in 10

Quote: (Originally Posted by NiallOC) View Original Post
actually yes there is: you only need to use the RBW "search" function to find them (does take a bit of work admittedly)
Wow! That spreadsheet is amazing. Thanks.

I did try searching for a while with next to know success before I realized it's OK to ask questions sometimes, no matter how stupid.
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Old 12th February 2010, 23:34   #7
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Re: 1 in 10

Quote: (Originally Posted by oya) View Original Post
In the program Extreme Cave Diving (which is friggin AWESOME) Jill Heinerth makes the seemingly broad claim, "'1 in 10 dies on a Rebreather" (or perhaps it was "1 in 10 rebreathers malfunction," but that seems even sillier. Because I'm reasonably sure that 10 in 10 rebreathers malfunction).
Obviously well founded claims like that would have to be good for the diving community as a whole.......

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Old 12th February 2010, 23:59   #8
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Re: 1 in 10

Quote: (Originally Posted by oya) View Original Post
In the program Extreme Cave Diving (which is friggin AWESOME) Jill Heinerth makes the seemingly broad claim, "'1 in 10 dies on a Rebreather" (or perhaps it was "1 in 10 rebreathers malfunction," but that seems even sillier. Because I'm reasonably sure that 10 in 10 rebreathers malfunction).
How about this; 1 in 10 of those who have dived on a RB is now dead. Probably close to true and totaly meaningless.

"On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"
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Old 13th February 2010, 01:13   #9
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Re: 1 in 10

My understanding is that the quote by Jill was edited out of context. See link below:

what did Jill say on NOVA? - Cave Diver's Forum - Cave Diving Resource
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Old 13th February 2010, 04:25   #10
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Re: 1 in 10

I have not seen the show and know too well how a statement can be edited completely out of context. I also understand that the show is only going to happen if there is enough hype to draw the average Joe in to viewing it.

To the numbers though. I have looked at the deep life spread sheet a number of times and have made moderate attempts to produce some statistics that would pass hypothesis testing. Unfortunately with my limited statistical abilities I can only determine that the data has too much sample error for results. I believe this is due to preconceived results hypothesis applied to the data sampling.

So I decided to take a very non statistical route and look at it with simple percentages. I have taken a lot of unverified data and applied my own hypothesis so the numbers are just blowing in the wind the same as everything else we have.

Taking the guesstimates of units sold and comparing those numbers to the number of deaths for each unit we have an average of .38% of deaths per unit sold. When comparing the total number of units with deaths compared to the sample used for units sold I came up with .42% comparatively. When looking at the numbers from a very suspect view point I would say they are close enough that they would probably pass a P test (I did not run it).

When we are looking at 180 documented deaths from 58 different manufacturers with over 8000 units sold it is probably fair to say that the statement taken in the strict sense that it was presented, from what I surmised from the thread, is false. Knowing Jill I would bet that the statement was taken way out of context with possibly a bit of hype thrown in as well.

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