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| | #511 (permalink) |
| So much more to learn ![]() Current Rebreather/s: | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents A few people, me included, have raised this before. I thought that Alex had addressed it (it does change the Inspo stats considerably). Somewhere, there is a post that breaks down the fatalities into a) non-backlit, old battery box Classic, b) upgraded Classic and c) Vision/Evo. The vast majority of deaths, IIRC, was on a). I would love to split them out.I can understand that outsiders may view all Inspos as one unit, but I don't think that is true or fair (particularly to APD). APD have addressed some serious flaws in the early Inspirations and the death rate has fallen. For that reason, those units should be separated out and due credit should be given. For one thing, it shows that any manufacturer can turn around issues on a unit. Alex, Please split them out. I'm sure you said in the past that you would. Apart from communicating a more meaningful picture to purchasers of a unit (or god forbid, the families of divers who pass on while diving Inspirations), it'll reduce the impression that you are on a crusade against APD and Martin. I am not crusading against anyone, other than for all companies to improve their safety and adopt basic safety practices in their business. Cheers, The only reason I have not, is I do not have the data to do so except from a confidential source that I can't use. In gathering the data the third party sources (i.e. not the confidential source above), has not have the breakdown of Vision or Classic in most cases. If anyone can provide that, I would separate the two sets of figures immediately. My impression is that Vision stats are making Classic stats look better, which has got to be good in that Vision is APD's newer product. Alex |
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| | #512 (permalink) |
| give a man an inch....... ![]() ![]() Current Rebreather/s: | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents I would love to split them out. well anything pre vision can't be vision for a start.The only reason I have not, is I do not have the data to do so except from a confidential source that I can't use. In gathering the data the third party sources (i.e. not the confidential source above), has not have the breakdown of Vision or Classic in most cases. If anyone can provide that, I would separate the two sets of figures immediately. My impression is that Vision stats are making Classic stats look better, which has got to be good in that Vision is APD's newer product. Alex why not mark every other one as classic, vision (where known) and inspiration where not known. At least that would be a start.
__________________ Beanie Gallery Admin & Library Assistant. www.outlawdivers.org.uk www.beandiving.co.uk www.beanengineering.co.uk |
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| | #513 (permalink) |
| Phil Siswick, Tango ![]() Current Rebreather/s: Evolution Other Rebreather/s: Inspiration Vision Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Oxford, UK
Posts: 996
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents well anything pre vision can't be vision for a start. Do we know when Classics started leaving the factory with backlit handsets and the new battery box? That could be a split point, though some incidents on units after that could have been on unmodified units (and clearly were). why not mark every other one as classic, vision (where known) and inspiration where not known. At least that would be a start. Looking at the dates quoted on units for sale, people have carried on buying Classics after the Vision was available, so I'm not sure that that split is too safe either. In both cases, it would make the stats for the newer/safer units look worse. Would be worth trying though, as it would at least isolate the earliest incidents/units reliably. Alex, Thanks for offering to do it. Any chance of going back to your confidential source to ask for permission to do it? Cheers,
__________________ Phil (WSKD 0001) I have always felt that the dive I am on is not nearly important as the dives I plan to be on the rest of my life. Tom Rose, 2007 The person who gets the farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. The sure thing boat never gets far from shore. Charles A. Lindbergh www.hugsac.org.uk |
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| | #514 (permalink) |
| Shearwater Copis Divers ![]() Current Rebreather/s: Other CCR Other Rebreather/s: Evolution Other CCR Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: seattle
Posts: 1,314
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents I think Phil's point is totally legitimate... if it's for lack of numbers from manufacturers then lets stop putting up with this BS and start pressuring the manufacturers to put out the numbers of units produced, known fatalities and dates of design change... Give them a date to have the data together, relaease all data from all manufacturers simultaneously to ensure no undue mud slinging and publically call out the manufacturers who refuse... the fact that we are left with so much to speculate is no fault of our own, times have changed and so should the standards. IMHO
__________________ Gill Envy ...Because I wasn't born with gills! ![]() ><(°>><(°>><(°>><(°>><(°>><(°>><(°>><(°> Last edited by Gill Envy : 24th April 2008 at 19:20. |
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| | #515 (permalink) |
| Custom Title Disallowed! ![]() ![]() Current Rebreather/s: Dolphin Other Rebreather/s: Dolphin Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Land of the Freef, UK.
Posts: 1,353
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents I think Phil's point is totally legitimate... if it's for lack of numbers from manufacturers then lets stop putting up with this BS and start pressuring the manufacturers to put out the numbers of units produced, known fatalities and dates of design change... Give them a date to have the data together, relaease all data from all manufacturers simultaneously to ensure no undue mud slinging and publically call out the manufacturers who refuse... we'll do our part to hammer the ones who refuse with "encouragement" and reward those who do with less speculation. Don't the CE standards insist that mods and updates are listed in the technical file? While we may not be allowed access to the tech file, is there some way that the numbers can be released?the fact that we are left with so much to speculate is no fault of our own, times have changed and so should the standards. IMHO Or shall we all get a couple of shares in any publically listed company and attend the AGM and ask a lot of questions ?
__________________ David. Currently owner of two differently sized ankles. |
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| | #516 (permalink) |
| So much more to learn ![]() Current Rebreather/s: | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents Do we know when Classics started leaving the factory with backlit handsets and the new battery box? That could be a split point, though some incidents on units after that could have been on unmodified units (and clearly were). <snip> There is no chance the confidential data would be released to be used outside the Chinese wall, unfortunately. This means we know data exists, but cannot use it at all, refer to it etc, other than for the specific purpose it was released to us. This is fairly common with most NDA agreements or arrangements involving confidentiality.Thanks for offering to do it. Any chance of going back to your confidential source to ask for permission to do it? Cheers, As regards the backlit handsets: all units after Aug 2000 were backlit - I know this because I recommended many of those changes directly to APD from April 2000 building up to a peak in May and June 2000. Battery boxes from new were Dec 2003 from our own figures. However, what we do not know in many accidents is exactly what the configuration was: backlit of not is known in some accidents but not others, battery box type known in some but not others etc. Alex |
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| | #517 (permalink) |
| Pacific Northwest ![]() ![]() Current Rebreather/s: Megalodon Other Rebreather/s: Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Portland Oregon
Posts: 556
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents ... Thanks to Kevin (UWSojourner) for a discussion on this (still ongoing) in helping ensure figures are presented in a way that can be understood and assumptions are listed clearly. From my point of view this is Alex’s thread. He has gathered grim data and published it. The attached file was offered to Alex the night before he temporarily departed from Rebreather World. I offered it to him because I was concerned about the methods he was using in the published statistics about the Meg.Some units have had a huge increase in sales in the past year, particularly the Meg ... To take examples of the effect of these assumptions: 1. Meg, 300 units in use based on 50% sales. Linear growth gives mean population of 150 from start of 2003 to 2008 (5 years). In latest accident list we have 12 fatal accidents listed for the Meg (up one, unfortunately). This gives 750 dive years of experience, with an average risk of 1.6%. Alex I provide the attached Excel file so anyone can test their own assumptions and come to their own conclusions. How many RBs of any particular model do you think were placed in service in each year? How many RBs left active service in each year? In a nutshell, I believe that 750 years of risk exposure on the Meg is low. In playing with the model I have a difficult time setting what appears to be reasonable assumptions and get the risk exposure down to that level. For example, if 50% sales growth is a reasonable estimate, then Megs would need to go out of service at an annual rate of 34.8% to achieve a total exposure of only 750 years. If the risk exposure is too low, then Alex's estimated mortality rate of 1.6% is too high (and other stats he posted). My best guess is that a rate of around 0.6% is supportable from the 2006-2007 data. But, I do NOT believe my estimates have an accuracy of “ within 10%”. I wish I could claim such accuracy, but I don't think the data is that good. Cheers. [BTW if a moderator thinks this should wait until Alex returns, then just save it and restore the post upon his return ... no problem] Last edited by UWSojourner : 28th April 2008 at 20:41. Reason: Moderator note; too long |
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| | #518 (permalink) |
| HH newbie Current Rebreather/s: Other CCR Other Rebreather/s: Other CCR Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Steyr, Austria
Posts: 99
![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents My problem with this discussion is that we have no way to tell for what kind of and how many dives the units are normally used. Thus all the -very earnest- approaches at calculating a risk factor per unit seem to me rather futile, even if and when we had all other relevant data. Personally, I bought the HammerHead to ultimately be able to do dives I canŽt do now with my rather elaborate trimix OC equipment. A year of accident free deep/long/cold/... "tec" dives would show up in this statistic with the same weight as my first (this) year on a rebreather with only shallow/no deco/normoxic dives is going to count. I still believe that collecting and publishing all available data is a good thing and will improve our ability to identify fields of possible improvement and risk factors when diving a rebreather but from a mere statistical point of view IŽd rather not try to calculate a number representing risk/unit.
__________________ Cheers, Chris When my basement became full, I believed to have enough divegear. Truth is, I had to get another basement. ![]() http://www.sharkforce.at |
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| | #519 (permalink) |
| Phil Siswick, Tango ![]() Current Rebreather/s: Evolution Other Rebreather/s: Inspiration Vision Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Oxford, UK
Posts: 996
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents My problem with this discussion is that we have no way to tell for what kind of and how many dives the units are normally used. Thus all the -very earnest- approaches at calculating a risk factor per unit seem to me rather futile, even if and when we had all other relevant data. I agree with this. If you further add the mods that people make which, in some cases take the unit a long way away from the manufacturer's design (HH on an Inspo for example), the data you need to get a meaningful risk/unit figure becomes greater.Personally, I bought the HammerHead to ultimately be able to do dives I canŽt do now with my rather elaborate trimix OC equipment. A year of accident free deep/long/cold/... "tec" dives would show up in this statistic with the same weight as my first (this) year on a rebreather with only shallow/no deco/normoxic dives is going to count. I still believe that collecting and publishing all available data is a good thing and will improve our ability to identify fields of possible improvement and risk factors when diving a rebreather but from a mere statistical point of view IŽd rather not try to calculate a number representing risk/unit. It's a classic example of someone seeing numbers in a spreadsheet, applying some formulas and coming up with an answer. In the process of adding all the variables, they find that they don't have information to support some (units in use, average dives per year etc.) so they make some 'educated' guesses and eventually come up with a number. It's probably about as meaningful in this case, what with all the factors that have been highlighted, as plucking a number out of your lower torso. Oh sorry, I've just dammed Statistics ![]() I'm all for the information getting out - I'm less in support of the statistical analysis. Cheers,
__________________ Phil (WSKD 0001) I have always felt that the dive I am on is not nearly important as the dives I plan to be on the rest of my life. Tom Rose, 2007 The person who gets the farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. The sure thing boat never gets far from shore. Charles A. Lindbergh www.hugsac.org.uk |
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| | #520 (permalink) |
| CK+Shearwater ![]() Current Rebreather/s: | Re: Comprehensive list of all accidents IMO the best thing you can do with these sad lists is read and try to understand what happened, then mod, prep and dive your kit so it doesn't happen to you. My aim is always to load the gun in my favour, so if and when it goes off I'll have a chance of handling it.
__________________ Know your PPO2, Pre-breath, Use checklists, Validate cells at 6mtrs, Use pure O2 at or near surface, Use a BOV, Don't dive Solo, Change Slime and Cells as recommended by Manufacturer and RTFM! Beware Fridge Suck! www.hugsac.org.uk |
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