Risk

bgpartri

If you would like to explore one persons view of the role of percieved risk in the way people behave in dangerous environments, you might want to read this book.

Risk, John Adams, UCL Press

Gordon Smith refered me to it, and it is one of the things that led him to build a rebreather that has no alarms, and doesn't take responsibility for ppo2.

It is full of stuff that is counter-intuitive and fascinating.

__________________
http://www.rebreather.ca

Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.

mstroeck

That looks absolutely fascinating, judging from the reviews and blurbs I've found. Thanks for the tip!

jeff h

Thanks for posting this. That looks like an excellent read.

-Jeff

bgpartri

"The setting of the [risk] thermostat varies from one individual to another, from one group to another, from one culture to another. Some like it hot -- a Hell's Angel or a Grand Prix racing driver for example; others like it cool -- a Mr Milquetoast or a little old lady named Prudence. But no one wants absolute zero."

John Adams

__________________
http://www.rebreather.ca

Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.

bgpartri

Agree completely Rich and suspected this a long time ago

I'll let folks into a small secret, if you remember about 3 years ago I started an Inspiration users survey on the DiverMole site which collected a lot of stats and figures. As part of that survey I asked about qualifications, problems etc. While I was collating it I noticed that some folks seemed to accept more risks than others and I developed a risk scoring system and allocated a score to all replyees

Some of the risk scores were pretty high and I have kept a list of the top 10 highest scores in a separate file. I am not going to name names as the whole survey is confidential but I will just mention that of the original 10 I have had to cross 4 off as they are no longer with us. 2 others were buddies of people on that list on their fatal dives

So I am beginning to suspect that I have a pretty good idea of the indicators to folks likely to be a statistic and I think its maybe a good time to reveal what I consider to be the number one correlation so far

#1 Correlation factor
USERS HAVE BEGUN A DIVE WITH A CELL WARNING OR FAILURE AND OR HAVE CONTINUED A DIVE WHEN SAID ERRORS HAVE ACCURED DURING IT

Thats it, simple isnt it. But I think this ties in nicely with other folks incidental evidence. Once you get so complacent that you are willing to dive with your life support showing a warning/error then as far as I'm concerned you are well on your way to being a statistic

So hands up if you have ever jumped in or continued a dive with a warning or error showing and ask yourself WHY did you do this? Why did you dive knowing some of your redundancy was missing? Why did you dive knowing you were already over the side of the incedent pit? I think if we can understand this issue we can think about ways to curtail/limit it. but first I think we will need some truthful answers from those that have done so and why that some folks deem the risk aceptable while I personally would call the dive at the slightest warning and would still be sitting on the boat if I had a cell warning during my pre dive checks (Cept I always carry spare cells)

Stephen (Mole)

__________________
http://www.rebreather.ca

Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.

Genesis

Why would ANY controller ALLOW this?

The K1 code does not.

If cal fails, it will not allow you to dive. Oh you can try, and it will raise hell. It will REFUSE to display the cell PO2s it "has", and will instead make a stink. It will do the "parachute" thing if it sees a loop PO2 under 0.20, but other than that, its basically disabled - and you can't shut it up underwater either.

Allow a dive to commence with a voted-out cell? WHY? What in GOD'S NAME would drive a firmware designer to allow that?!

__________________
"A venturesome minority will always be eager to get off on their own, and no obstacles should be placed in their path; let them take risks for Godsake, let them get lost, sunburnt, stranded, drowned, eaten by bears, buried alive under avalanches - that is the right and privilege of any free American."
http://www.denninger.net
http://www.diversunion.org/liability.htm - Fix the Diving Cert racket

dave t

That post is a little misleading the inspiration will not let you dive with a failed cell, but a cell warning can be caused by a cell that reaches the required milivolt output to cal but afterwards will be much slower than the others which will flag a cell warning. this may happen on the prebreathe, it may happen underwater. I guess this in it self is not a dire problem but it should be enough to cause you to bin the dive. or

I think the point Steven was making was that some people will just ignore the warnings and still dive.

Micko

wow that hit home imi in the high risk have done a dive with cell down never again time to reavaluate my risk level .
Thanks for that artical.

UWSojourner

Thanks for your post. If possible, it would be great to get the next few highest risk factors.

bgpartri

I think the point that he is trying to make isn't that the specific act of starting a dive with a cell warning is going to kill you.

It is that people who are willing to dive with a warning are people whose "risk thermostat" is set a little higher than average. People who are willing to dive with several problems may have a very high risk thermostat. And people with a very high risk thermostat may be more likely to die on a rebreather.

And of course that would imply that they would also be more likely to die driving their car or climbing Mount Everest.

__________________
http://www.rebreather.ca

Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.