Managing Risk / Bail out

***schford*** · 17th March 2005, 16:18

I have read a number of threads on here about bailout planning and bailout in general with some interest. I have my own thories on how this should be planned and thought I would share them with you.

For me its all about risk - identyfing the risks involved with the dive I am planning, the likelyhood of the risks occuring, the consequances of that risk and how I can mitigate the risk.

Thats what our new friend mystery diver

does - hence forth referred to as MD or even

- lets look at a few things mystery diver gets up to....

Our man MD is planning an 80 metre trimix dive on a wreck - he knows the wreck and intends to penetrate her. He looks at the risks and considers what could go wrong, the main risk that worries him is breaking his loop. Either by puncturing a counter lung which he thinks he may be able to cope with or by catching the actual loop hose. Well the consequances of that he thinks are pretty bad! So he knows he needs to carry bailout gas.

But how much - well he is diving with his usual team and his usual skipper and has utter confidence in their abilities. so he decides to carry enough bailout to get back to and up the shotline where a 12l deco cylinder could be waiting for him. He considers the risks around this - if it is not there he would have to surface early and risk a DCS hit but believes the likely hood of this occuring is minor so is willing to take that risk.

You'll be glad to know that dive went well! So MD starts planning his next dive...

This next dive is on one of his favourites a huge wreck in only 25 to 30 metres - he knows he will not incur any deco but will be penetrating the wreck - again his biggest worry is breaking his loop - although he will not have a deco obligation, he knows he will not be able to exit the wreck and get to the surface so he decides to carry a 3l or 7l to ensure he is ok...

A few weeks later and our friend MD is in the Red Sea and is planning a 50ish metre trimix dive to look at this fantastic coral formation knows as "madethisup!"

He considers his risks- he is not doing any penetration today in fact he does not intend to touch anything, the visibility is good for 40 metres the temperate is 20oC, he is diving with a group he has dives with all over the world, his equipment is performing faultlessly and has never let him down, he has a new slime fill and his cylinders are full. He is 99.9999% confident in his equipment so decides again taking bail out as he has considered many risks believes he has identified the potential risks and believes the likelyhood of them occuring are very small.

You'll be glad to know everything was A ok again...

My stories are at an end....I hope they helped in illustrating an approach to bailout planning....

1 - Likely risks from the particular dive i am planning
2 - Likelihood of the risk occuring
3 - Consequances of the risk occuring
4 - Ways in which I can mitigate that risk...

Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk.

Hope no one

me!

Stuart

***EBT*** · 17th March 2005, 16:58

Im sure everyone knows Im a proponent of always carrying some bailout.

What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas? Nothing to do with him or his boat... just some random.

Everyone has to make their own assessments, that much I'll agree with.

Mdemon · 17th March 2005, 17:22

I do like stories with a happy ending Stuart!

I agree. Bailout is about risk analysis and risk mitigation.

At some stage you just have to accept that the kit was designed to work, and place your bets accordingly...

Quote: (Originally Posted by schford)

I have read with interest all the threads on bailout and have a few theories of my own and thought I would share these with you.

............................................

Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk.

Hope no one

me!

DoubleTop · 17th March 2005, 19:01

this approach of risk assessment is carried out in many lines of work, why should diving be any different. Building sites, climbers, hikers, ramblers all should make a decent risk assessment before doing what they do.

As wreckweasel says though - it's pretty hard to plan for a

DT.

***schford*** · 17th March 2005, 22:41

Quote: (Originally Posted by wreckweasel)

Im sure everyone knows Im a proponent of always carrying some bailout.

What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas? Nothing to do with him or his boat... just some random.

Everyone has to make their own assessments, that much I'll agree with.

Well I think he would not be able to help the person that jumped him as he did not forsee that risk.

It's an individual thing the perception and management of risk and I am certainly not advocating that any one should follow what our friend MD does.

But hopefully everyone thinks about the risks involved in their dives, the consequances of those risks, the likelyhood of the risks occuring and then plans accordingly.

Stuart

***Decodiver*** · 17th March 2005, 22:45

Quote: (Originally Posted by wreckweasel)

What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas?

Well Zak,

As all military divers will tell you:

Stab him repeatedly in the face.

Cheers

Dave

ROB DAVIE · 17th March 2005, 23:44

Folks,

As we all know, we are engaging in behaviour that carries a higher risk factor than "normal" diving, if there is such an animal.

Here's where one of Tom Mount's favourite sayings comes into play: "After being properly informed of the risks, any adult has the right to risk himself or herself as he or she sees fit!"

Of course, the word "properly" becomes a real concern when we are doing our risk-benefit analysis. Do we really know the risks? There's a lot of judgement involved in that question.We are all by now familar with the "Rule of Thirds" as it appplies to penetrations into overhead environments. That is one well established procedure which evolved as a response to identified risk.

The problem is this: Our mighty _________ (insert name of favored Rebreather) box of kitty litter and voodoo gases can take us anywhere we want to go. It can also take us places we don't want to go, such as so far into a wreck or dive that, when Mr. Murphy catches up to us, we can't get HERE from THERE!

I tell my students this. Plan for the worst case scenario. You have followed your dive plan. You turn to exit the wreck, or for the surface, and your unit fails in a catastrophic manner. You cannot go on the loop at all. What are you gonna do now, G.I? (And I don't mean he of Jekyll and Hyde fame, I mean usted, amigo!)

If you don't have enough gas to ascend to the surface in a safe and orderly manner, or some plan as to how to obtain that gas (without attacking your buddy), you are about to have carnal knowledge of the young canine.!!

Think about it, and proceed accordingly!

Rob Davie

Mdemon · 18th March 2005, 09:15

Quote: (Originally Posted by Decodiver)

Well Zak,

As all military divers will tell you:

Stab him repeatedly in the face.

Cheers

Dave

Hmmmm.... Now planning to loiter near the Italian dive boats when I'm next in Sharm! LOL!

My bailout includes stages that whilst mounted, can be undone easily and handed off - they are also long hosed for the interim period... (The benefits of going from OC to CCR means you have LOADS of the right kit...

)

So, if jumped by an OOA buddy or lost OC freak, I have the option to help them "at arms length".

At the risk of going on and on

, I have planned for a bailout breather as part of my long term strategy. However, I'm thinking of still carrying a stage for the above reason - and to balance the rig...

Might be cheaper just to buy a dirty great big knife though...

HelenM · 18th March 2005, 09:24

Quote: (Originally Posted by Mdemon)

My bailout includes stages that whilst mounted, can be undone easily and handed off -
So, if jumped by an OOA buddy or lost OC freak, I have the option to help them "at arms length".

Might be cheaper just to buy a dirty great big knife though...

Erm. As one of the buddies in question, might I request the approach with stages rather than the dirty great knife?!

Just a thought!

H

(Disclaimer: Not that I am planning on being a muppet / running out of gas etc etc etc, but you know. Just in case.)

Nad · 18th March 2005, 11:16

Quote: (Originally Posted by schford)

Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk.

Absolutly agree.

Quote:

Hope no one

me!
Stuart

For sure not me

I think sometime is difficult to completly trust your buddy so to cover any (or almost any) situation you'll plan also for buddy's failures (besides your own).
In a perfect world it should be like you say: everyone have to properly plan, but I see some difficulties...

Best,

Nad

17th March 2005, 16:18	#1 (permalink)
*schford* Despotic Overlord Current Rebreather/s: Megalodon Sport Kiss Other Rebreather/s: Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: London, UK Posts: 3,562	Managing Risk / Bail out I have read a number of threads on here about bailout planning and bailout in general with some interest. I have my own thories on how this should be planned and thought I would share them with you. For me its all about risk - identyfing the risks involved with the dive I am planning, the likelyhood of the risks occuring, the consequances of that risk and how I can mitigate the risk. Thats what our new friend mystery diver does - hence forth referred to as MD or even - lets look at a few things mystery diver gets up to.... Our man MD is planning an 80 metre trimix dive on a wreck - he knows the wreck and intends to penetrate her. He looks at the risks and considers what could go wrong, the main risk that worries him is breaking his loop. Either by puncturing a counter lung which he thinks he may be able to cope with or by catching the actual loop hose. Well the consequances of that he thinks are pretty bad! So he knows he needs to carry bailout gas. But how much - well he is diving with his usual team and his usual skipper and has utter confidence in their abilities. so he decides to carry enough bailout to get back to and up the shotline where a 12l deco cylinder could be waiting for him. He considers the risks around this - if it is not there he would have to surface early and risk a DCS hit but believes the likely hood of this occuring is minor so is willing to take that risk. You'll be glad to know that dive went well! So MD starts planning his next dive... This next dive is on one of his favourites a huge wreck in only 25 to 30 metres - he knows he will not incur any deco but will be penetrating the wreck - again his biggest worry is breaking his loop - although he will not have a deco obligation, he knows he will not be able to exit the wreck and get to the surface so he decides to carry a 3l or 7l to ensure he is ok... A few weeks later and our friend MD is in the Red Sea and is planning a 50ish metre trimix dive to look at this fantastic coral formation knows as "madethisup!" He considers his risks- he is not doing any penetration today in fact he does not intend to touch anything, the visibility is good for 40 metres the temperate is 20oC, he is diving with a group he has dives with all over the world, his equipment is performing faultlessly and has never let him down, he has a new slime fill and his cylinders are full. He is 99.9999% confident in his equipment so decides again taking bail out as he has considered many risks believes he has identified the potential risks and believes the likelyhood of them occuring are very small. You'll be glad to know everything was A ok again... My stories are at an end....I hope they helped in illustrating an approach to bailout planning.... 1 - Likely risks from the particular dive i am planning 2 - Likelihood of the risk occuring 3 - Consequances of the risk occuring 4 - Ways in which I can mitigate that risk... Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk. Hope no one me! Stuart
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17th March 2005, 16:58	#2 (permalink)
*EBT* Apprentice Luddite Current Rebreather/s: Classic Kiss Other Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: UK, Brighton Posts: 1,970	Im sure everyone knows Im a proponent of always carrying some bailout. What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas? Nothing to do with him or his boat... just some random. Everyone has to make their own assessments, that much I'll agree with. __________________ Eagles May Soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines! Rebreather World Terms of service Real diving t-shirts for real divers
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17th March 2005, 17:22	#3 (permalink)
Mdemon SiegeEngine II Current Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Home Build Other Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Home Build Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: SWUK Posts: 1,927	I do like stories with a happy ending Stuart! I agree. Bailout is about risk analysis and risk mitigation. At some stage you just have to accept that the kit was designed to work, and place your bets accordingly... Quote: (Originally Posted by schford) I have read with interest all the threads on bailout and have a few theories of my own and thought I would share these with you. ............................................ Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk. Hope no one me! __________________ www.southwestmafia.com "small minds talk about people, Average Minds Talk About Events, GREAT MINDS TALK ABOUT IDEAS!" The WRONG Attitude will get you killed. "Once the agenda-monkeys and perfect-worlders have moved on, perhaps we can do some diving?"
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17th March 2005, 19:01	#4 (permalink)
DoubleTop Rebreather World Greeter and How do I? Moderator Current Rebreather/s: Not Bought Yet Other Rebreather/s: Not Bought Yet Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Reading, Berks, UK Posts: 145	this approach of risk assessment is carried out in many lines of work, why should diving be any different. Building sites, climbers, hikers, ramblers all should make a decent risk assessment before doing what they do. As wreckweasel says though - it's pretty hard to plan for a DT.
(Offline)

17th March 2005, 22:41	#5 (permalink)
*schford* Despotic Overlord Current Rebreather/s: Megalodon Sport Kiss Other Rebreather/s: Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: London, UK Posts: 3,562	Quote: (Originally Posted by wreckweasel) Im sure everyone knows Im a proponent of always carrying some bailout. What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas? Nothing to do with him or his boat... just some random. Everyone has to make their own assessments, that much I'll agree with. Well I think he would not be able to help the person that jumped him as he did not forsee that risk. It's an individual thing the perception and management of risk and I am certainly not advocating that any one should follow what our friend MD does. But hopefully everyone thinks about the risks involved in their dives, the consequances of those risks, the likelyhood of the risks occuring and then plans accordingly. Stuart
(Offline)

17th March 2005, 22:45	#6 (permalink)
*Decodiver* Administrator Current Rebreather/s: Other CCR Other Rebreather/s: Other CCR Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Geneva Posts: 2,181	Quote: (Originally Posted by wreckweasel) What does MD do, when he's jumped at 50m, by some poor sucker who's out of gas? Well Zak, As all military divers will tell you: Stab him repeatedly in the face. Cheers Dave __________________ CCR/OC Trimix Instructor Trainer CCR Training to Mixed Gas in Switzerland, France, UK & Germany on Megalodon/COPIS-Megalodon/KISS/Sport KISS/Ouroboros/rEvo/Inspiration/Evolution/Sentinel www.zerogravitydiving.com Rebreather World Terms & Conditions
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17th March 2005, 23:44	#7 (permalink)
ROB DAVIE Administrator Current Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Other Rebreather/s: Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: HOUSTON, REPUBLIC OF TEJAS Posts: 1,120	Managing Risk Folks, As we all know, we are engaging in behaviour that carries a higher risk factor than "normal" diving, if there is such an animal. Here's where one of Tom Mount's favourite sayings comes into play: "After being properly informed of the risks, any adult has the right to risk himself or herself as he or she sees fit!" Of course, the word "properly" becomes a real concern when we are doing our risk-benefit analysis. Do we really know the risks? There's a lot of judgement involved in that question.We are all by now familar with the "Rule of Thirds" as it appplies to penetrations into overhead environments. That is one well established procedure which evolved as a response to identified risk. The problem is this: Our mighty _________ (insert name of favored Rebreather) box of kitty litter and voodoo gases can take us anywhere we want to go. It can also take us places we don't want to go, such as so far into a wreck or dive that, when Mr. Murphy catches up to us, we can't get HERE from THERE! I tell my students this. Plan for the worst case scenario. You have followed your dive plan. You turn to exit the wreck, or for the surface, and your unit fails in a catastrophic manner. You cannot go on the loop at all. What are you gonna do now, G.I? (And I don't mean he of Jekyll and Hyde fame, I mean usted, amigo!) If you don't have enough gas to ascend to the surface in a safe and orderly manner, or some plan as to how to obtain that gas (without attacking your buddy), you are about to have carnal knowledge of the young canine.!! Think about it, and proceed accordingly! Rob Davie __________________ [SIZE=2]"CC Rebreathers will become a viable part of tech diving [U]WHEN PIGS FLY[/U]!!"--GI3[/SIZE]
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18th March 2005, 09:15	#8 (permalink)
Mdemon SiegeEngine II Current Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Home Build Other Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Home Build Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: SWUK Posts: 1,927	Quote: (Originally Posted by Decodiver) Well Zak, As all military divers will tell you: Stab him repeatedly in the face. Cheers Dave Hmmmm.... Now planning to loiter near the Italian dive boats when I'm next in Sharm! LOL! My bailout includes stages that whilst mounted, can be undone easily and handed off - they are also long hosed for the interim period... (The benefits of going from OC to CCR means you have LOADS of the right kit... ) So, if jumped by an OOA buddy or lost OC freak, I have the option to help them "at arms length". At the risk of going on and on , I have planned for a bailout breather as part of my long term strategy. However, I'm thinking of still carrying a stage for the above reason - and to balance the rig... Might be cheaper just to buy a dirty great big knife though... __________________ www.southwestmafia.com "small minds talk about people, Average Minds Talk About Events, GREAT MINDS TALK ABOUT IDEAS!" The WRONG Attitude will get you killed. "Once the agenda-monkeys and perfect-worlders have moved on, perhaps we can do some diving?"
(Offline)

18th March 2005, 09:24	#9 (permalink)
HelenM Custom Title Allowed! Current Rebreather/s: Inspiration Classic Other Rebreather/s: Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Cheltenham Posts: 116	Quote: (Originally Posted by Mdemon) My bailout includes stages that whilst mounted, can be undone easily and handed off - So, if jumped by an OOA buddy or lost OC freak, I have the option to help them "at arms length". Might be cheaper just to buy a dirty great big knife though... Erm. As one of the buddies in question, might I request the approach with stages rather than the dirty great knife?! Just a thought! H (Disclaimer: Not that I am *planning* on being a muppet / running out of gas etc etc etc, but you know. Just in case.) __________________ Would paper take tortoise?
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18th March 2005, 11:16	#10 (permalink)
Nad Rebel to the Bone Current Rebreather/s: Ouroboros Other CCR Other Rebreather/s: Not Bought Yet Inspiration Classic Other CCR Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Europe Posts: 976	Quote: (Originally Posted by schford) Oh and that there is never a one size fits all right answer to bail out planning, its about how you feel about risk. Absolutly agree. Quote: Hope no one me! Stuart For sure not me I think sometime is difficult to completly trust your buddy so to cover any (or almost any) situation you'll plan also for buddy's failures (besides your own). In a perfect world it should be like you say: everyone have to properly plan, but I see some difficulties... Best, Nad __________________ The Impossible is often the Untried
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